Kamis, 30 September 2010

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Audible Audiobook

Listening Length: 6 hours and 3 minutes

Program Type: Audiobook

Version: Unabridged

Publisher: Simon & Schuster Audio

Audible.com Release Date: November 6, 2018

Language: English, English

ASIN: B07JN23WSY

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

I met Lane once a few months ago at a party during a time in my life when I was desperate to overcome my social anxiety so I could make new friends. After awkwardly inserting myself into a conversation about The Office, she mentioned writing a chapter about Jim Halpert in her upcoming book, “How to Be Alone”, and I knew I had to read it because boy did I need that instruction in my life. As a person who gets attached too easily, who too desperately wants to be liked and loved and have someone whom to give the overwhelming amounts of love in my heart, I fully expected this book to teach me how to not be miserable about not having friends and being painfully single or at least not to be so desperate for love.Instead what I got was quite the opposite of the title of the book, a sense I was not alone. Lane is at times painfully honest about how alone she has been and felt, but there is no bitterness. You see how great her capacity to love is, and you truly feel that love, as if she‘s left a piece of her heart on the page, just for you. It seems so rare these days to find people who are not shy about expressing how terribly alone they have felt, but also how deeply they care and love and all the things they want for themselves and so very much need. Many of the pages are now earmarked because I found so much of myself in this book and I want to go back and read those pages to remind myself I’m not alone in the things I feel, but more importantly that it’s ok to feel them.There are so many more amazing things to be said about this book, and I know others will find themselves in these pages just like I did. If you’ve ever experienced a time in your life when you’ve felt truly alone, this book is for you.

This is like sandpaper for your heart where it needed to be smoothed out so badly because you keep getting splinters from the rough bits but god the sanding hurts too.

I’m not sure I can put how I feel about this book into words, but I’ll try. The word “alone’ has always summarized my life, and yet Lane has brought depth and meaning to my state of alone-ness I did not know I was seeking. I, too, was that kid who did everything to escape, to go outside, with friends, with a boyfriend, alone down by the creek, driving the back roads of my county once I had my license – which was the very day I turned sixteen – anything to be away from my house and revolving door of my mother and her endless parade boyfriends and relationships. Superficially, my (divorced) parents appeared congenial and cooperative to onlookers, and thus, I imagine others believed I was treated well. My (forced) independence at ages as young as six when I was a latch-key kid was celebrated as a commendable achievement. This so-called independence was a crutch enabling my parents to avoid all nurturing and care setting me up for a lifetime of abandonment and trust issues because no one was ever there for me.Tears of empathy and solidarity welled in my eyes as I read Emergency Contact Left Blank because I knew I found a kindred soul. I, too, am the kind of orphan that makes sense to no one, and Lane’s writing has made me feel seen in ways over twenty-years of therapy sessions have not. She has made me laugh at my condition and bridged a path toward acceptance that there will never be a resolution for my childhood. This book is the Reality Bites of 2018, and the companion that gets me.

When I preordered this book, I felt like it was coming at just the right time in my life. Having now inhaled it in one sitting, I don't think there could have ever been a wrong time.Moore can't help but imbibe every page with humor, regardless of the subject matter, and even when I was reading through tears (which I did no less than six times, folks!) I was laughing out loud.I've struggled since high school with how to navigate romantic relationships. I wrote a paper in my junior year about my resistance to pressure to lower my standards and ‘settle’, and over a decade later not much has changed. That apparent self-confidence is completely at odds with my debilitating fear of ending up never making that connection I'm holding out for--a fear that looms larger as every day brings me closer to turning 30.This book was one of the first pieces of pop culture I've encountered that validated that unsustainable dichotomy, instead of spending untold time and energy trying to ‘see what's out there’. That happiness I'm looking for cannot be forced. This is true not just for romantic relationships but for family and friends as well, and Moore doesn't seem to hold anything back when she includes visceral personal anecdotes to propel this book beyond a mere memoir or self-help book and towards something that is far greater than the sum of its parts.I would tell you all the ways, big and small, I felt like this book resonated with me so personally and so specifically, but I get the feeling that everyone will find something that speaks almost scarily directly to their personal experiences here. Lane Moore has done a monumentally courageous thing with How To Be Alone, and I could not be more grateful to her for that.

I ordered this as soon as I heard Lane's interview on NPR, as this 60-something woman resonated deeply with so much of what she said. I devoured it, and had to wait for the tears to stop before I could read the acknowledgments. Lane is an old soul who beautifully captures the pain and potential of aloneness at any age. Lane's story and honest convictions will inspire many, and this is a book I will return to on a regular basis for reassurance and affirmation.

Lane Moore emptied her soul to describe her own survival. And somehow it's more funny than sad/horrifying. Lane's writing style puts you in her car, on a bad date, figuring out how to arrange furniture in a room with a dirt floor while rapists lurk outside... and you'll feel like she's telling you this while you're sitting on couches under blankets and cry-laughing. I want to give this to everyone so they can feel the warm assurance of Lane's voice that is a genius mix of devastating and triumphant, but mostly the latter. Is it weird to be proud of an author you've never met? That's me with this book. Bravo.

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Sabtu, 18 September 2010

PDF Download The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives, by Leonard Mlodinow

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The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives, by Leonard Mlodinow

The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives, by Leonard Mlodinow


The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives, by Leonard Mlodinow


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The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives, by Leonard Mlodinow

Amazon.com Review

Amazon Guest Review: Stephen Hawking Published in 1988, Stephen HawkingÂ’s A Brief History of Time became perhaps one of the unlikeliest bestsellers in history: a not-so-dumbed-down exploration of physics and the universe that occupied the London Sunday Times bestseller list for 237 weeks. Later successes include 1995Â’s A Briefer History of Time, The Universe in a Nutshell, and God Created the Integers: The Mathematical Breakthroughs that Changed History. Stephen Hawking is Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at the University of Cambridge. In The DrunkardÂ’s Walk Leonard Mlodinow provides readers with a wonderfully readable guide to how the mathematical laws of randomness affect our lives. With insight he shows how the hallmarks of chance are apparent in the course of events all around us. The understanding of randomness has brought about profound changes in the way we view our surroundings, and our universe. I am pleased that Leonard has skillfully explained this important branch of mathematics. --Stephen Hawking

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From Publishers Weekly

A drunkard's walk is a type of random statistical distribution with important applications in scientific studies ranging from biology to astronomy. Mlodinow, a visiting lecturer at Caltech and coauthor with Stephen Hawking of A Briefer History of Time, leads readers on a walk through the hills and valleys of randomness and how it directs our lives more than we realize. Mlodinow introduces important historical figures such as Bernoulli, Laplace and Pascal, emphasizing their ideas rather than their tumultuous private lives. Mlodinow defines such tricky concepts as regression to the mean and the law of large numbers, which should help readers as they navigate the daily deluge of election polls and new studies on how to live to 100. The author also carefully avoids veering off into the terra incognita of chaos theory aside from a brief mention of the famous butterfly effect, although he might have spent a little more time on the equally famous n-body problem that led to chaos theory. Books on randomness and statistics line library shelves, but Mlodinow will help readers sort out Mark Twain's damn lies from meaningful statistics and the choices we face every day. (May 13) Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Product details

Hardcover: 272 pages

Publisher: Pantheon (May 13, 2008)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0375424040

ISBN-13: 978-0375424045

Product Dimensions:

6.4 x 1.1 x 9.6 inches

Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.3 out of 5 stars

450 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#118,799 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Math, history, and psychology all wrapped up in an often funny, and consistently well written 220 pages. It definitely falls into the page-turner category, and while there is some math, even the math phobic likely will enjoy it. Ironically, while the book focuses on the impact of randomness in world events and our personal lives, it is very well organized. Yet there is no reason why you shouldn't read the chapters in random order. Sure, there is some carryover from one chapter to the next, but if you read the last chapter first, Â you might find yourself even more enlightened.I found chapter 9 to be particularly enlightening. Randomness is clearly a part of our lives and often is the source of major world events and trends. Most of us know this, Â but as the author points out, we try to organize random events so that they make sense and point to a direction. He uses examples of the stock market and the success/failure of new movies and books. There are countless people making a nice living trying to convince us that they see a pattern when in fact there is none. There are many more "hmmph, I didn't know that" points in the book, but If this is your only learning, Â it is a worthwhile use of your time and money.

The book is an historical account of the development of two branchs of mathematics: probabilities and statistics. It is very comprehensive, covering a wide range of the subject in details. However, it is not a technical book. The author try to address explain the mathematics using simple examples in a narrative form. Being an engineer, I would like to say that probabilities and statistics are not easy subjects. As the author points throughout the book, part of the difficult is due to the fact that both sciences usually produce results that are very counterintuitive. The type of conclusions that clash directly to our expectations. The author did its best to try to address such complexity. But, it still is a difficult book. So, I recommend reading it with time and patience. But, at the end, it is a worth reading, in particular for anyone interested in history of science.

Although it’s seemingly impossible to discuss this book without drawing parallels to Fooled By Randomness, these books provide a great compliment to each other. This book in particular differs in its scope, traversing many areas outside of finance. It also speaks more directly to the reader, explaining the mathematics of probability by breaking down the mathematics (in contrast to Taleb who speaks more through analogies and metaphors).The writer explains concepts clearly, and explores the role (and misunderstandings of) probably in Hollywood, the board room, the courts, and why the Greek's, despite their immense mathematical contributions had no understanding – and a great skepticism of – probability.This book contains just the right balance of history, philosophy, mathematics, popular culture (Monty Hall problem, etc), and it’s accessible to all. If you’re on the fence about it, look at the Table of Contents for some inspiration.

“If you want to succeed, double your failure. Even a coin weighted toward failure will sometimes land on success”. The Drunkard’s Walk by Leonard Mlodinow illustrates the role of randomness in our lives. Randomness is one of the most dependable forces at work around us. This book was captivating from the perspective of a psychology major, but anyone with a basic knowledge of mathematics and probability would benefit from picking up this book. It doesn’t focus on explaining one event, but rather examines wide spread models of randomness’ reach. Our mistakes in logic have impacts from the court system to college football. Mlodinow explains the impact of randomness for the most wealthy to the most impoverished, and reminds us of our biases towards the two. General psychology teaches us that we all look for patterns to understand the randomness in our lives. This book expands on the principle of heuristics, and advises us to appreciate the randomness that affects us positively rather than negatively. The Drunkard's Walk meshes with our knowledge of Skinner’s pigeons and rats by explaining how our predictable mental processes can so easily fail us.Leonard Mlodinow explores the predictability of randomness and its impact on the movie industry, college football, and so much more. Success operates on a continuum and regression towards the mean calls for periods of both extreme failure and success. Mlodinow tells us that our inability to understand this continuum results in college coaches fired for less successful seasons and famous movie producers given the boot when their good luck suddenly runs dry. It was discovered later on that first-in-commands have little to do with the success of their respective fields. Our biases and misconceptions can rule our lives unless we account for them. This book address questions like: how can something so obvious be wrong? Mlodinow explains how our misinterpretation of probabilities have greatly tainted our legal system. Simple mathematical mistakes are “enough to sober up anyone drunk on feelings of cultural superiority”. These mistakes are enough to bring ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ back into question. OJ Simpson’s trial and the Pearl Harbor attacks are re-calculated to show how previous mistakes in logic can seem so obvious in reverse. The clever selection of gripping anecdotes will keep me coming back to this book. Mlodinow proves that it’s possible to win the lottery if we gather enough people together to outsmart the system. He uncovers why the most wealthy people in the world are no smarter than you and me, and he does it with great wit and humor. Overall, he urges us to judge each other by our qualities, and not the results we obtain. This book opened my eyes to the randomness working in my life and all around me. Are my most successful moments pure serendipity? Mlodinow succeeds in taking the ancient logic of philosophers and basic knowledge in mathematics and uses it to disprove most everything I trusted to be grounded in strong rationale. From social physics to prosecutor's fallacy, it’s hard to see anything the way I used to.

You may guess that this book is about drunk people walking. Wrong. Drunk people are more likely to let the universe control their bodies. As you may know, the result is random (sort of). Thus the other way around is also true: the whole universe is drunk all the time! Damn, this even explains quantum mechanics? Sure. But this book is about the effects of a drunk universe in our ordinary lives. The bad news is: you don't need a drink to see randomness everywhere.

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Senin, 13 September 2010

Get Free Ebook Loss Models: From Data to Decisions (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics)

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Loss Models: From Data to Decisions (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics)

From the Back Cover

A GUIDE THAT PROVIDES IN-DEPTH COVERAGE OF MODELING TECHNIQUES USED THROUGHOUT MANY BRANCHES OF ACTUARIAL SCIENCE, REVISED AND UPDATED Now in its fifth edition, Loss Models: From Data to Decisions puts the focus on material tested in the Society of Actuaries' newly revised Exams STAM (Short-Term Actuarial Mathematics) and LTAM (Long-Term Actuarial Mathematics). Updated to reflect these exam changes, this vital resource offers actuaries, and those aspiring to the profession, a practical approach to the concepts and techniques needed to succeed in the profession. The techniques are also valuable for anyone who uses loss data to build models for assessing risks of any kind. Loss Models contains a wealth of examples that highlight the real-world applications of the concepts presented, and puts the emphasis on calculations and spreadsheet implementation. With a focus on the loss process, the book reviews the essential quantitative techniques such as random variables, basic distributional quantities, and the recursive method, and discusses techniques for classifying and creating distributions. Parametric, non-parametric, and Bayesian estimation methods are thoroughly covered. In addition, the authors offer practical advice for choosing an appropriate model. This important text: Presents a revised and updated edition of the classic guide for actuaries that aligns with newly introduced Exams STAM and LTAM Contains a wealth of exercises taken from previous exams Includes fresh and additional content related to the material required by the Society of Actuaries and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries Offers a solutions manual available for further insight, and all the data sets and supplemental material are posted on a companion site Written for students and aspiring actuaries who are preparing to take the Society of Actuaries examinations, Loss Models offers an essential guide to the concepts and techniques of actuarial science.

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About the Author

STUART A. KLUGMAN, PHD, FSA, CERA, is Staff Fellow (Education) at the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and Principal Financial Group Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Actuarial Science at Drake University. He has served as SOA vice president. HARRY H. PANJER, PHD, FSA, FCIA, CERA, HonFIA, is Distinguished Professor Emeritus in the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science at the University of Waterloo, Canada. He has served as CIA president and as SOA president. GORDON E. WILLMOT, PHD, FSA, FCIA, is Munich Re Chair in Insurance and Professor in the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science at the University of Waterloo, Canada.

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Product details

Series: Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics

Hardcover: 560 pages

Publisher: Wiley; 5 edition (March 19, 2019)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 1119523788

ISBN-13: 978-1119523789

Product Dimensions:

7 x 0.9 x 10.1 inches

Shipping Weight: 1.9 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.0 out of 5 stars

26 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#447,064 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

This book is a great resource for Exam C, however it's ridiculous that there are no solutions to chapter exercises in the original textbook... why write this many problems without even giving the odd answers in the back? I would use this text as a base for studying for exam C, however the lack of solutions makes me look elsewhere. I am NOT going to buy the solutions book; I believe solutions should come with the text.Also, many exercise problems refer to previous exercises in other chapters without reiterating the original problem. You end up doing exercises and flipping back 50+ pages to look at the original problem... this becomes very tedious and annoying after a while.

Comparing to the 3rd edition, nothing improved but deleted several chapters like ruin theory and Poisson process. I recommend the 3rd edition if you want to dig more. However, as a reference of exam C, this is sufficient

The Klugman's loss model is definitely a classical textbook for actuarial science. The third edition is also the classical edition. As they have elaborate on varies actuarial model, I have to say that every actuarial guys should definitely have one of their own for reference and enjoy. Greatest solute to Professor Klugman, Panjer and Willmot.

I bought this for a SOA exam. I studied for P, FM, MLC, and MFE by reading the textbooks, and then drilling myself with problems. Not with this exam. Once I started reading this, I was pretty sure I would need a manual instead.

Very good!

Book was delivered to me in great condition.

The book was fine. The description includes a solutions manual. This was not included. Kind of false advertisement

the right textbook I needed for my class. it was in a very good condition.

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Minggu, 05 September 2010

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Neymar The Wizard, by Michael Part

About the Author

Michael Part is a soccer fan, screenwriter and author. Michael wrote the critically acclaimed books The Flea-The Amazing Story of Leo Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo-The Rise of a Winner and The Pope Who Loves Soccer. Michael is also the American editor of the bestselling children's book series, The Wild Soccer Bunch.

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Product details

Age Range: 8 - 12 years

Grade Level: 3 - 7

Paperback: 168 pages

Publisher: Sole Books (November 15, 2014)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 1938591194

ISBN-13: 978-1938591198

Product Dimensions:

5 x 0.4 x 8 inches

Shipping Weight: 6.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.6 out of 5 stars

38 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#367,333 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

I picked this up for my son to read after he read The Flea which was about Messi. There were times where he wouldn’t put it down.

My grandson loved the book. He loves soccer and immediately sat down and read the book.

My grandson and daughter read the Micheal Part books over and over. They are so good.

This also a Christmas present and only will I know if it's a hit or not this player is also a favorite of my great grandson

My son read it a day!!! Must have been a good read!!

ok

My grandson loved this book. He is 14 and loves soccer. It is easy to read and he read it in one day.

My 9 year old is enjoying the book

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